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.10.von Mises, Human Action, 3rd rev.ed., p.55 1.11.For a full discussion of how this process works, see Trader Vic-Methods, Chapter 10.12.It is possible that the increased demand for consumer goods could drive consumer prices up faster than in thecapital goods market, resulting in forced savings that offset, to some extent, the upward pressure on producers' prices.In effect, originary interest would be lowered, and the pace of economic progress would be advanced.Eventually,however, prices for consumer goods rise to the point of causing a---flightto real values.-13.von Mises, Human Action, p.559. Chapter 41.von Mises, Human Action, 3rd rev.ed., p.807.2.John Maynard Keynes, General Theor ' v of Emplo ' ilment, Interest, and Money (1 stHarbinger ed., New York: Harcourt Brace, 1964), p.95.Chapter 71.Gordon A.Holmes, Capital Appreciation in the Stock Market (New York: Parket Publishing Company, 1969), p.32.Chapter 81.Irving Kristol, editorial, January 9, 1986, p.28, The Wall Street Journal.2.Robert Rhea, Dow's Theory Applied to Business and Banking (New York: Simon and Schuster, 1938).3.The Barron's Index was discontinued in 1938.To maintain as much consistency, as possible, I used the IndustrialProduction Index (1987 = 100) from 1921 to the present.4.Op.cit., Rhea, p.77.267Chapter 91.Robert Rhea, Dow's Theory Applied to Business and Banking (New York: Simon and Schuster, 1938).Chapter 101.For a more detailed discussion of the merits and hazards of technical analysis as well as the specific technicalmethods 1 employ, see Trader Vic-Methods of a Wail Street Master (New York: John Wiley & Sons, 1990).2.Robert D.Edwards and John Magee, Technical Analysis of Stock Trends (Springfield, MA: John Magee, 1966).3.For a more complete discussion of my technical principles of market analysis.see Trader Vic-Methods, pp.49-108.4.When applied to the stock averages, all related averages must confirm the trend.If they do not, then a divergenceexists-evidence of a possible change of trend.5.For a detailed explanation of the causes of tests and the 2B pattern.see Trader VicMethods, pp.81-84.6.For a detailed discussion of the oscillators 1 use and how to calculate them.see Trader VicMethods, pp.94-104.Chapter 121.See Victor Sperandeo, Trader Vic-Methods of a Wall Street Master (New York: John Wiley & Sons, 1990), forfurther details on these trading rules.2.Ibid.Chapter 131.Yale Hirsch, 1993 Stock Trader's Almanac (Old Tappan, NJ: Hirsch.1993). IndexAAA corporate bonds, 71 Breadth, 156Advance-decline line (A/D line), 156 British Pound, chart analysis.181Altruism, 257, 261 Buchanan.Pat, 204Antitrust legislation, 123 Bull market:Arbitrage trading: defined, 102dollar and, 72 life-expectancy distributions.130options, 221 Bull market primary swings:Austrian School of Economics, 15 life-expectancy distributions.130Available capital, 6 risk of, 137short-term trading, 141Banks: Bush, George, 12, 204, 207dollar and, 72 Business boom.36-41.58lending patterns, 62 Business cycles:Barron's Monthly Index of the government policies and.25-27Physical Volume of Industrial illustration of, 27-29Production, 100 nature of.36-40Bass, Sam.4Bassel Accords, 63 Capital gains taxes:Bear market: effects of, 48-57defined, 102 new ventures.48-49recession and, 136 Capitalism.historical perspective.Belief system, 255 -255.263Big Mac, 82 Capitalism: The Unknown IdealBlack and Scholes pricing model.(Rand).81206 Capital savings.18.46Black Monday, 137, 203 Chart analysis:Bonds, September chart analysis.August Gold
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